The Great Compute Crash and the Crypto Safety Net

Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO and current head of Maelstrom, believes the world is currently throwing trillions of dollars down a hole in a frantic rush to build AI data centers. Speaking at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore, Hayes argued that while tech giants are racing to secure computing power, they are fundamentally overbuilding. This pattern, he suggests, is a historical constant where every major technological leap begins with excessive investment followed by an inevitable crash.

According to Hayes, many of the primary drivers behind this demand, including OpenAI and Anthropic, aren't actually turning a profit yet. He predicts that once these massive infrastructure projects are completed around 2027 or 2028, providers will start demanding payment for their services. If AI doesn't become miraculously profitable within the next year, the resulting glut of computing power will lead to a downturn. However, Hayes isn't suggesting investors short AI stocks; instead, he is looking toward the government intervention that typically follows such collapses.

Drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, Hayes argues that systemic crashes almost always trigger massive liquidity injections through bailouts. In his view, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies act as sponges for this excess capital. By positioning himself in crypto now, Hayes believes he is preparing for a surge in value once central banks step in to stabilize the economy following an AI bubble burst. For him, it is simply a matter of patience until the cycle completes itself.

Beyond speculating on market crashes, Hayes is leveraging this predicted surplus of cheap computing power for his own new venture called Flop. Launching in early 2027, Flop intends to create a spot market where AI agents can trade tokens for GPU access and inference tasks. Because AI agents essentially consume compute as their primary resource, Hayes bets that creating a dedicated payment network for them will turn the fallout of an overbuilt industry into a sustainable ecosystem for autonomous digital workers.